Law firm leaders, corporate counsel, litigators, legal professionals and other industry stakeholders around the world are talking about what another Trump presidency will mean for their organizations, practice areas and client businesses.
This post will be continuously updated.
• “I don’t want to speculate on what this electoral result might mean for democracy and safeguarding fundamental liberties and protecting the rule of law,” Brad Karp, chairman of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, said. “I’m an optimist at heart and we’re shortly going to celebrate the 250th anniversary of our independence. Our institutions have been tested throughout history and emerged even stronger.” He added: “From a business perspective, I would expect the Trump administration’s avowed pledge to reduce regulation and oversight, lower corporate tax rates, and ease administrative burdens and roadblocks will fuel M&A activity and spur our capital markets.”
• The second Trump term will “probably be good for business,” noted another Am Law 25 leader, who asked to speak anonymously in order to talk candidly. “Just look at the stock market this morning,” the firm leader said, referring to a surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average early Wednesday. “I think you are going to see a clearing out of the anti-trust authorities as well. The tax policies from 2017 will get locked in as well.”
• “Change is always good for the government relations business, and this will be no different. We expect a very aggressive first 100 days, both in the administration and in Congress, particularly if Republicans maintain control of the House,” said Will Moschella, co-chair of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck’s government relations department. “I think, early on, you’re going to see an incredibly fast-moving regulatory reform agenda and in a number of different spots. You saw what they talked about during the campaign, particularly around energy and anything impacting inflation.”
• Aaron Cutler, leader of Hogan Lovells’ government relations and public affairs practice, said he is “bullish” that a second Trump administration will be good for law firm business overall. “Personally, as a practice group leader, I think for our practice, it’s going to be really good. As a whole, I think every international trade group in Washington, D.C., is going to be super busy because President Trump has said tariffs are going to be a tool that he uses … you need lawyers to look at all the exceptions and carve-outs and all that.”
• Expect Trump to name replacements for Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler and Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan, and the FTC likely will retreat from its noncompete ban, said Jon Dubrow, a partner at McDermott Will & Emery, in Washington D.C. “However, the administration would not be soft on antitrust, based on Trump’s first term,” he said. During that term, the DOJ blocked consolidation among major health insurers, and the FTC sued Facebook, alleging it had monopolized the social media market, a case that remains pending.”
• Elias Hinckley, a Baker Botts partner in Washington, D.C., who works on transactions in the renewable energy sector, said he expected work lawyers are doing in the energy sector will increase. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which provides for tax credits for clean energy projects, has resulted in growing numbers of projects, and the general assessment of the market is that the core piece of those tax credits will remain relatively stable under a Trump administration, because so much of the investment has been in primarily Republican-controlled districts. He noted that U.S. House Republicans recently wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson, asking him to not cut the IRA’s clean energy tax credits if the party expands its House majority in the election. Also, Hinckley said, it is likely that the Trump administration will relax regulations on fossil fuel projects, which would lead to projects going forward. However, he also speculates that those relaxed regulations may result in a big potential for litigation around the issue. As for M&A, Hinckley expects to see some changes in relative valuation, and some of the energy transition companies and assets may “look a little riskier.”
• Jessie Gaston, a Paris-based tax partner at Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe, said multiple 2024 elections worldwide have caused markets to stall as investors wait for more clarity about the direction of policy and trade. “I believe the American election, regardless of who won, coupled with the interest-rate reductions we are seeing in Europe, will stimulate business activity that has been delayed or put on standby since the beginning of the year.”
• Ken Daly, managing partner of Sidley Austin Brussels and co-head of the antitrust and competition practice, said the Trump campaign rhetoric suggested a near-term focus on tariffs and other protectionist measures. “It seems like important policy changes may be coming, so we expect demand for expertise in these areas to be very high, as our clients face a period of uncertainty.”
• “The guys on Wall Street will actually be welcoming a Trump victory,” one London banking partner said. “Away from the media coverage and perspective that we get, Trump has always been the pro-business option.”
• Other London lawyers expect a protectionist stance from Trump, who believes U.S. companies have been unfairly treated in Europe. “How he tries to remedy that, what he’s going to do in terms of the Digital Markets Act, is unclear,” Willkie Farr & Gallagher antitrust litigation partner Boris Bronfentrinker said. “There could be some tit-for-tat regulation with other countries. He told the CEO of Apple a couple weeks ago, for example, that he would look into what’s going on between them and the EU.”
• Michael Engle, co-chair of Stradley Ronon’s white collar defense, internal investigations and corporate compliance, said he does not think there will be fewer cases, but rather the scope of cases will be more limited to immigration, drugs and violent crime. “Some of the enforcement aimed at corporate America related to the Biden administration’s priorities, will probably no longer be priorities,” Engle said. “The Biden administration was interested in antitrust and environmental cases. And those are not seemingly Trump administration priorities.”
• “One area likely to receive a different level of attention—a less aggressive approach—is the crypto industry, given the incumbent’s public views on the issue,” said J. Bruce Maffeo, senior counsel at Cozen O’Connor. “That’s an area that has received significant attention by both the SEC and DOJ in recent years.”
• A veteran white collar litigator in New York who asked his name not be used said it was “difficult to get granular” in predictions about the next administration until the appointments are public. “The Trump Justice Department was, and more than likely will be, barring geopolitics, probably less aggressive and less inclined to proceed with criminal sanctions against companies,” the attorney said.
• Washington, D.C., legal recruiters Dan Binstock and Amy Savage talked about the election’s impact on government lawyers. “Our phones were blowing up this morning with people [government lawyers] who have been on the fence, who were waiting for the election results,” said Binstock, adding, “It’s very normal to have the revolving door with a change in administration, for a lot of reasons. What we are seeing right now is a little bit more. People have stronger feelings on this than typical years past. It’s resulting in more black-or-white thinking on whether to stay in the government.” Savage said: “I’ve had calls from both career attorneys and political appointees today.”
• Eversheds Sutherland’s congressional investigations practice co-lead Neal Higgins said in an email that, “The incoming Trump team has made it clear that they plan to revisit the federal government’s current approach to AI, focusing less on regulation and more on innovation and competition. For the legal industry that likely means more technological solutions that incorporate AI, but also a greater need to make sure those solutions are providing accurate, reliable, and unbiased results.”
• David Nasatir, Obermayer Rebmann Maxwell & Hippel’s chair, expressed uncertainty about where the legal market would head in the wake of Trump’s reelection. “I don’t know what to expect, but I’m cautiously optimistic. I [suspect] that the unconventional nature of Trump means there’s going to be a lot less certainty or normalcy, and the market always looks for stability.” As for lawyers’ personal reactions, he said: “There’s a lot of folks in my profession that are disappointed [Trump] won, and some who are happy he won. Just like in everything else, you have to keep moving…It is what it is. It’s a democracy, and the system works. Now we see what happens next.”
• Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer partner John P. Elwood, head of the firm’s appellate and Supreme Court practice, said Trump in his second term may appoint judges based on “people personally connected to Trump or known to the Trump organization.” “I think there will be more Aileen Cannons and fewer Stephanos Bibas,” Elwood said.
link